Methodology
We evaluated 312 MVP launches from 2021–2025 against a 12-month outcome marker (still shipping, acquired, or shut down). Each MVP was re-classified against a 40-variable rubric covering scope, team, pricing, measurement, and founder cadence. The top and bottom quartiles were interviewed to pressure-test correlations and extract playbooks. All dollar figures are normalized to 2026 USD.
Key findings
The signals that shaped the rest of the analysis — each one backed by the full methodology in the download.
29%
Of MVPs reach v2
The remainder either shut down, pivoted beyond recognition, or sat in maintenance mode with no meaningful release in 12 months.
3.4x
More likely to survive with weekly shipping cadence
MVP teams that shipped something visible weekly were 3.4x more likely to still be operating at month 12.
$72,000
Median MVP total spend (successful cohort)
Surprising nobody except cost-cutters: starving an MVP was correlated with death, not efficiency.
62%
Of failed MVPs over-scoped pre-launch
Shipped with 40+ features when the retained feature set post-launch averaged 12.
11 weeks
Median launch-to-first-revenue
For MVPs with a paid pricing model at launch, regardless of industry.
Inside the report
A scannable chapter guide. Each chapter includes data tables, charts, and practitioner commentary in the full PDF.
What 'success' actually means at 12 months and why binary failure framing hides most of the story.
A direct inverse correlation between launch feature count and 12-month survival.
Founder-led, fractional-CTO, agency-built, and in-house squads compared on outcome and cost.
Whether the team had a single north-star metric at week one predicted survival better than funding stage.
Free MVPs had a much harder path to v2 than priced MVPs — even when pricing was clearly wrong.
Eight MVPs that were effectively dead at month 6 and the exact moves that brought them back.
Weekly feedback loops, customer-call volume, and release cadence as the three strongest predictors of survival.
Full report
All the data, charts, and appendices — no gate, no drip campaign, no retargeting pixel circus.